Key to Victory (Part 1): Brock Lesnar
Tomorrow night, when the octagon door closes, UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will put his title on the line against the undefeated challenger Cain Velasquez. It's going to be a collision of strength and size versus mobility and technique. Brute force and might will be going head to head with persistence and aggression to see who reigns supreme as the heavyweight champion.

Brock Lesnar will have to close the distance of Cain Velasquez early. He's going to have to pour on the take down attempts from the get-go. If the word from Velasquez's camp is true, then his cardio is really extraordinary. Lesnar's is undoubtedly in tip-top shape, but the hype about Cain's endurance and relentless pace should give Lesnar a sense of urgency. As mentioned, the heavyweight champion better be looking to begin his onslaught and try to take out the challenger as quick as possible.

He does not want to stand-up with Velasquez, that much is known about his game-plan at the very least. Even if Cain does not possess the power that his previous opponent Shane Carwin did, the stand-up is the most disadvantageous dimension of the fight for Lesnar. He's going to have to not be afraid of getting hit in the face and rush for the take down. Get that gap closed so that Velasquez doesn't have enough time to find his range, or to implement his foot movement. Even if Velasquez stops his take down, he should quickly go for another shot. Allow no breathing room, because the position Velasquez mostly does not want to find himself is underneath him.

If Lesnar manages to take it to the ground, the first thing he should do is secure positions. He should not worry about throwing strikes until he feels Cain is trapped. Giving Cain holes (as he did to Heath Herring) could prove detrimental. I suspect Cain will slip and squirm out from underneath Lesnar if he does not follow this gameplan and instead looks to tee-off right away. Lesnar was able to realize this in his fight against Frank Mir, so I see no reason it should be any different in this fight. However, he'll be dealing with an opponent who is going to be much more relentless to get the fight standing, so his patience will be tested.

If Lesnar cannot secure a take down early on, he could always clinch with Velasquez. In fact, I would give the clinch as Lesnar's biggest advantage. He threw some sick knees on Randy Couture from the clinch, and I really see this as being the one area where he can overpower Velasquez. He could pin him against the cage, and work from there. Throwing some dirty boxing strikes while holding him against the cage. Lesnar should use anything he can to try and neutralize the stand-up, and clinching him until the round is over could play a big part in the game-plan. If Lesnar wins...I expect it to be from the clinch. Whether it's a big strike that knocks Velasquez down and then he ground and pounds him or whether it's a clean KO from the position, I see a Lesnar victory coming from the clinch.

That is how the heavyweight champion will have to fight in order to retain. Work for the take downs and not let Cain get off first. Keep him pressured and avoid the stand-up. Turn it into an all out grappling match-up so that Lesnar can utilize his massive frame, his weight advantage, and strength. If he gets him to the ground, he'll have to look to smother Cain and be methodical about securing advantageous positions to work his strikes.



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